Guided Response: Respond to at least two peers. In your first response, critique one of your peers Part 1 scenarios. In your second response, critique a students Part 2 reply to the scenario for each of the following:
100 words each
Missing or out of place sequences of actions. Justify your assessment.
Determination of essential decisions and uncertainties. Justify your reasons.
Determination of risk profile for each choice. Explain your assessment.

Discussion One By Flora:

The holiday season is extremely important for a toy company. It is the last opportunity for a toy company to make profits. According to Sharpe et al. (2019), the costs and profits “ the payoffs “ of alternative action under various states of nature can be estimated fairly well, because they depend on business-related events and actions that are well understood (p. 24-8). As such, it is crucial for myself, as the executive to understand all of the business-related events that may have already transpired and what may transpire. 
With the given option presented of marketing one of the two new toys for the upcoming holiday season, I as the business executive I would ask the business analyst the following questions. What are the expenses per toy that the company pays to produce each toy? What is the price per toy compared to the cost per toy? With this question, I want to find the profit margin of each toy, does one provide more profit then the other? Has research been performed to validate that no other toy company will come out with a similar toy as Toy 1? How has ChoiceToys sale of Toy 2 compared to the two competitors toys?
In regards to the marketing, I as the executive will need to know how much has been previously spent thus far to market Toy 1 and Toy 2? Additionally, from that data, I would like to know how much profit or payoff was received from each when it came to sales of both products.  I would like to see whether there were any scenario modeling performed on the results of marketing compared to the outcomes of the marketing. There is a lot of insight that can be received from scenario modeling, which, when coupled in with the other data I am requesting from the analyst, will help me make a more informed decision.
References
Sharpe, N. D., De Veaux, R. D., & Velleman, P. F. (2019). Business statistics (4th ed.). Retrieved from https://www.redshelf.com

Discussion Two By Ashton: 

Data analyst is important in every aspect of business. This is even more noticeable in certain industries and especially those with stiff competition. We need to look at Choicetoys options when it comes to which product to launch. This is even more important as our scenario revolves around the holiday season which is when gifts and toys are most often bought.
When considering the situation at hand and Choicetoys action, we must look at a couple different elements to decide which would be the most beneficial. Each has their own risk, but by considering probability it would help us to better understand which would potentially be more successful. Probability allows us to report and understand the likelihood of an events occurrence including possible losses or the growth/success of each product. Next, we need to consider what would be our maximax. According to our textbook, maximax refers to actions that maximize the returns across the board in a payoff table (Sharpe et al., 2019, p.24-16). When considering Toy 1 and Toy 2, Toy 1 would offer us the greatest maximizer for potential profits due to its uniqueness and lack of competition but, does not have other competitors to compare against pricing or success. When we look at Toy 2, it offers a more stable approach but, it lacks the same upside as Toy 1. This is due to the fact that it experiences competition from other products but, we can calculate a general idea regarding its minimum return and maximum cost.
Other variables we would want to consider when deciding which product to proceed with would include current customer feedback regarding the comparable gifts and the possible new product. In addition, a data analyst would want to look at other factors such as cost to make, ship, market, and quantity. Moreover, we would need to understand the financial standing of our target groups and what they would be willing or able to pay for each product. Focus groups would be our main resource when deciding what product to proceed with in terms of their interest, likely hood to purchase, and what price they would be willing to pay for each product. This combined with available historical data would be used and presented to the data analysts. A payoff table could be used by the analyst to help compare and contrast each product and the data they find regarding the products potential profitability and likelihood to bring to market.
Questions that I would like to ultimately know are:
What is the overall financial cost for each toy?
What is the cost of our toy versus the competition?
What are the potential profit margins per each toy?
Would the differences in our toys make them more appealing than the competition?
What are the current toy trends and do they align more with Toy 1 or Toy 2? 
These questions combined with scenario modeling would be presented to the data analyst to help form an educated action plan for which product to ultimately proceed with.
Reference: 
Sharpe, N. D., De Veaux, R. D., & Velleman, P. F. (2019). Business statistics (4th ed.). Retrieved from https://www.redshelf.com